[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebound slightly on August 13, with expectations for an interest rate cut strengthening after the release of US July CPI data

SMM Nickel News on August 13:

Macro News:

(1) The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose 0.2% MoM, in line with expectations, and slowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The YoY increase remained at 2.7%, while the market had originally expected it to rise to 2.8%, ending the rebound momentum of the past two months. After the data release, traders increased their bets on a US Fed interest rate cut in September.

(2) The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumer Loans: The scope of subsidy includes consumer spending under RMB 50,000 per transaction, as well as spending in key areas such as household vehicles, elderly care, and childbirth, which amounts to RMB 50,000 or more per transaction.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranges from RMB 122,600 to RMB 125,000 per mt, with an average price of RMB 123,800 per mt, up RMB 300 per mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is RMB 1,900-2,200 per mt, with an average premium of RMB 2,050 per mt, down RMB 100 per mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -RMB 100 to RMB 300 per mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2509) opened higher in the night session and strengthened slightly. As of the midday session, SHFE nickel was quoted at RMB 122,800 per mt, with an intraday increase of 0.14%.

After the release of the US July CPI data, the market's expectation for the probability of an interest rate cut in September rose above 94%. The US dollar index pulled back to around 98. Trump publicly pressured Fed Chairman Powell to "cut interest rates immediately," further strengthening expectations for monetary easing. However, geopolitical and policy uncertainties, as well as high inventory pressure, limited the gains. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate amid the tug-of-war between weak fundamentals and macro sentiment support, with a price range of RMB 119,000-123,000 per mt.